STORY OF THE S1NO-JAPANESE WAR 385
sham, unable to sustain a Japanese onslaught, while on the same day another Japanese diplomat shortly returned from China, warned the leaders that China had already become a new nation and that aggravation of the incident would mean a ruinous major war. As I wrote in November, 1937 (Asia Magazine], shortly after the war began, "In Chinese phraseology, Japan is 'saddling a tiger,' unable to get down and equally worried how to go on. But she has to go on 'riding the tiger.3 Japan was literally trapped into a ruinous war, while expecting an easy victory. She miscalculated when she thought Chiang Kaishek's talk of resistance a 'bluff.' Again she miscalculated the strength of Chinese unity. For a third time, she has miscalculated the strength that wholesale attacks on Chinese women and children will demoralize, instead of stiffening, Chinese resistance. The next time, therefore, that Japanese statesmen claim they alone know the Chinese, and Westerners don't, it will be simple to point out these facts." In the same article, I warned that "we have to assume an extended war of years, in which both belligerents will come out thoroughly exhausted," and that "we are presented with the prospect of a war of one or two years in which the only certainty is that both nations will be ruined." The Japanese Army has the virtue of pluck and enterprise, but the unforgivable vice of being woefully ignorant about China. Confucius said, "the gentleman hates those who are brave and headstrong but are not restrained by propriety. He hates those who are daring, but thick-headed." It is evident that Confucius, being a gentleman, would heartily hate the Japanese Army to-day. The anti-Japanese attitude of Confucius is further assured by the amplifying statement by his disciple, Tsekung: "I hate those who like to spy on others and think they are very clever. I hate those who think they are brave when they are merely unruly. And I hate the wily persons who pretend to be honest gentlemen" (Analects, XVII).
Writing elsewhere (N.T. Times Magazine, Jan. soth, 1938), I stated, "The Chinese determination to fight to a finish will force a stalemate, which I believe is the only certain outcome, ... At the end of the war, China will be devastated and Japan will be so weakened that she will become a second-class power.